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Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang

Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第5卷第2期页码 177-187 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017177

摘要： To improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting, an uncertain multiple linear regression (UMLR) model is presented in this study. The proposed model avoids the transfer of random error generated in the independent variable to the dependent variable, as this affects prediction accuracy. On this basis, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model is used for crop planting structure optimization (CPSO) with the inputs that are interval flow values under different probabilities obtained from the UMLR model. The developed system, in which the UMLR model for runoff forecasting and the ITSP model for crop planting structure optimization are integrated, is applied to a real case study. The aim of the developed system is to optimize crops planting area with limited available water resources base on the downstream runoff forecasting in order to obtain the maximum system benefit in the future. The solution obtained can demonstrate the feasibility and suitability of the developed system, and help decision makers to identify reasonable crop planting structure under multiple uncertainties.

关键词： crop planting structure optimization inexact two-stage stochastic programming runoff forecasting Shiyang River Basin uncertain multiple linear regression

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A rain-on-snow mixed flood forecast model and its application

Jian WU, Lan LI,

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第4期页码 440-444 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0051-0

摘要： Based on summarizing the rule of rainstorm and snowmelt mixed flood, the structure of rain-on-snow runoff-generation is discussed; and critical temperature is used to determine the form of precipitation and snowmelt factor, taking into account rainfall volume of snowmelt. A rain-on-snow flood forecast model is developed by combining LL-Ⅰdistributed hydrology model. The Kalangguer River, an internal river in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, is taken for example. It is indicated that the model has a higher precision of forecasting; its determinacy coefficient is greater than 0.80.

关键词： Xinjiang Autonomous forecasting hydrology temperature rain-on-snow runoff-generation

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Pesticides in stormwater runoff−A mini review

Cheng Chen, Wenshan Guo, Huu Hao Ngo

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第5期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-019-1150-3

摘要： • The sources and pathways of pesticides into stormwater runoff were diverse. • Factors affecting pesticides in stormwater runoff were critically reviewed. • Pesticides mitigation strategies were included in this review. • The current knowledge gap of the pesticides in stormwater runoff was identified. Recently, scientific interest has grown in harvesting and treating stormwater for potable water use, in order to combat the serious global water scarcity issue. In this context, pesticides have been identified as the key knowledge gap as far as reusing stormwater is concerned. This paper reviewed the presence of pesticides in stormwater runoff in both rural and urban areas. Specifically, the sources of pesticide contamination and possible pathways were investigated in this review. Influential factors affecting pesticides in stormwater runoff were critically identified as: 1) characteristics of precipitation, 2) properties of pesticide, 3) patterns of pesticides use, and 4) properties of application surface. The available pesticide mitigation strategies including best management practice (BMP), low impact development (LID), green infrastructure (GI) and sponge city (SC) were also included in this paper. In the future, large-scale multi-catchment studies that directly evaluate pesticide concentrations in both urban and rural stormwater runoff will be of great importance for the development of effective pesticides treatment approaches and stormwater harvesting strategies.

关键词： Pesticide Stormwater runoff Occurrence Urban runoff

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Transferral of HMs pollution from road-deposited sediments to stormwater runoff during transport processes

Qian Wang, Qionghua Zhang, Mawuli Dzakpasu, Nini Chang, Xiaochang Wang

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第1期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-019-1091-x

摘要：

Ratio of turbidity and TSS (Tur/TSS) was used to characterize PSD of stormwater particles.

Pb and Zn preferred to accumulate in finer RDS, while Cu, Cr and Ni in coarser RDS.

HMs pollution in stormwater particles increased linearly with Tur/TSS.

Dissolvability of HMs and PSD variations contribute to the differences between RDS and stormwater.

关键词： Road-deposited sediment Stormwater runoff Heavy metal Particle size Pollution variation

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Advances in LID BMPs research and practice for urban runoff control in China

Haifeng JIA, Hairong YAO, Shaw L. YU

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2013年第7卷第5期页码 709-720 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0557-5

摘要： China is at present experiencing a very rapid urbanization process, which has brought a number of adverse impacts upon the water environment. In particular, urban runoff quantity and quality control have emerged as one of the key concerns for municipal officials. One of the strategies being considered is the use of a Low Impact Development type of Best Management Practices (LID BMPs) for urban storm water runoff quantity and quality control. In this paper, the situation surrounding urban runoff control in China is reviewed first. Then the conventional strategy and technologies for the construction and management of urban drainage systems are discussed, while exploring their inherent dilemmas. The LID BMPs are then introduced to control urban runoff in the context of urban sustainable water systems. After the comprehensive analysis of the various LID BMPs, the advances in LID BMPs research and practice for urban runoff control in China are investigated and summarized. At last, the difficulties of implementing LID BMPs in China are discussed, and a direction for the future is proposed.

关键词： urbanization urban runoff control Low Impact Development type of Best Management Practices (LID BMPs) China

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Removal of non-point pollutants from bridge runoff by a hydrocyclone using natural water head

Jianghua YU, Yeonseok KIM, Youngchul KIM

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2013年第7卷第6期页码 886-895 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0449-0

摘要： A hydrocyclone using natural water head provided by bridge was operated for the treatment of stormwater runoff. The hydrocyclone was automatically controlled using electronic valve which is connected to a pressure meter. Normally the hydrocyclone was open during dry days, but it was closed after the capture of the first flush. The results indicated that the average pressure and the flow rate were directly affected by the rainfall intensity. The pressure head was more than 2 m when the rainfall intensity was above 5 mm·h . The percentage volume of underflow with high solids concentration decreased as the pressure and flow rate increased, but the percentage volume of overflow with almost no solids showed the opposite behavior. The total suspended solids (TSS) concentration ratio between the overflow and inflow (TSS /TSS ) decreased as a function of the operational pressure, while the corresponding ratio of underflow to inflow (TSS /TSS ) increased. The TSS separation efficiency was evaluated based on a mass balance. It ranged from 25% to 99% with the pressure head ranging from 1.4 to 9.7 m, and it was proportional to pressure and flow rate. Normally, the efficiency was more than 50% when the pressure was higher than 2 m. The analysis of the water budget indicated that around 13% of the total runoff was captured by the hydrocyclone as a first flush, and this runoff was separated as underflow and overflow with the respective percentage volumes of 29% and 71%. The pollutants budget was also examined based on a mass balance. The results showed that the percentage of TSS, chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in underflow were 73%, 59%, 7.6%, and 49%, respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that the hydrocyclone worked well. It separated the first flush as solids-concentrated underflow and solids-absent overflow, and effectively reduced the runoff volume needing further treatment. Finally, four types of optional post treatment design are presented and compared.

关键词： first flush hydrocyclone non-point pollution removal efficiency stormwater runoff

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Regional wind power forecasting model with NWP grid data optimized

Zhao WANG, Weisheng WANG, Bo WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2017年第11卷第2期页码 175-183 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0471-9

摘要： Unlike the traditional fossil energy, wind, as the clean renewable energy, can reduce the emission of the greenhouse gas. To take full advantage of the environmental benefits of wind energy, wind power forecasting has to be studied to overcome the troubles brought by the variable nature of wind. Power forecasting for regional wind farm groups is the problem that many power system operators care about. The high-dimensional feature sets with redundant information are frequently encountered when dealing with this problem. In this paper, two kinds of feature set construction methods are proposed which can achieve the proper feature set either by selecting the subsets or by transforming the original variables with specific combinations. The former method selects the subset according to the criterion of minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR), while the latter does so based on the method of principal component analysis (PCA). A locally weighted learning method is also proposed to utilize the processed feature set to produce the power forecast results. The proposed model is simple and easy to use with parameters optimized automatically. Finally, a case study of 28 wind farms in East China is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关键词： regional wind power forecasting feature set minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR) principal component analysis (PCA) locally weighted learning model

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A comprehensive review and analysis of solar forecasting techniques

Pardeep SINGLA, Manoj DUHAN, Sumit SAROHA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第2期页码 187-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0722-7

摘要： In the last two decades, renewable energy has been paid immeasurable attention to toward the attainment of electricity requirements for domestic, industrial, and agriculture sectors. Solar forecasting plays a vital role in smooth operation, scheduling, and balancing of electricity production by standalone PV plants as well as grid interconnected solar PV plants. Numerous models and techniques have been developed in short, mid and long-term solar forecasting. This paper analyzes some of the potential solar forecasting models based on various methodologies discussed in literature, by mainly focusing on investigating the influence of meteorological variables, time horizon, climatic zone, pre-processing techniques, air pollution, and sample size on the complexity and accuracy of the model. To make the paper reader-friendly, it presents all-important parameters and findings of the models revealed from different studies in a tabular mode having the year of publication, time resolution, input parameters, forecasted parameters, error metrics, and performance. The literature studied showed that ANN-based models outperform the others due to their nonlinear complex problem-solving capabilities. Their accuracy can be further improved by hybridization of the two models or by performing pre-processing on the input data. Besides, it also discusses the diverse key constituents that affect the accuracy of a model. It has been observed that the proper selection of training and testing period along with the correlated dependent variables also enhances the accuracy of the model.

关键词： forecasting techniques hybrid models neural network solar forecasting error metric support vector machine (SVM)

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Analysis of rainfall runoff characteristics from a subtropical urban lawn catchment in South-east China

Jinliang HUANG, Zhenshun TU, Pengfei DU, Qingsheng LI, Jie LIN

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第4期页码 531-539 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0287-x

摘要： Characteristics of rainfall runoff from a 3.26?hm urban catchment with predominant land-use as lawn in Xiamen City, South-east China were investigated and analyzed. Water quality and quantity measurements of rainfall runoff were conducted for ten rainfall events over the period March, 2008 to April, 2009. The results indicated that chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) were the major pollutants with event mean concentrations of 56.09 and 0.44 mg·L . From hydrograph and pollutograph analysis of two typical rainfall events, it was clear that the peak rainfall preceded the peak flowrate by about 15–20 min. Meanwhile, concentrations of major pollutants showed multiple peaks and these peaks usually preceded peak flowrate. There were no distinctive first-flush effects except for the rainfall events with the longest rainfall duration and largest runoff volume, which was verified by the fact that the first 30% runoff volume (FF30) carried 39.36% of the total suspended solids (TSS) load, 35.17% of the COD load, 28.13% of the TP load and 39.03% of the nitrate nitrogen load. Multivariate regression analysis further demonstrated that the total runoff volume had a positive correlation with the FF30 of TSS and COD.

关键词： rainfall runoff first flush pollution characteristics urban lawn catchment

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Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

Jiarui HAN, Qian YE, Zhongwei YAN, Meiyan JIAO, Jiangjiang XIA

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第4期页码 533-542 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

摘要： The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.

关键词： user-end information user-oriented interactive forecasting system TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)

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ENHANCING RAINFALL-RUNOFF POLLUTION MODELING BY INCORPORATION OF NEGLECTED PHYSICAL PROCESSES

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第10卷第4期页码 553-565 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2023519

摘要：

The growing need to mitigate rainfall-runoff pollution, especially first flush, calls for accurate quantification of pollution load and the refined understanding of its spatial-temporal variation. The wash-off model has advantages in modeling rainfall-runoff pollution due to the inclusion of two key physical processes, build-up and wash-off. However, this disregards pollution load from wet precipitation and the relationship between rainfall and runoff, leading to uncertainties in model outputs. This study integrated the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) into the wash-off model and added pollutant load from wet precipitation to enhance the rainfall-runoff pollution modeling. The enhanced wash-off model was validated in a typical rural-residential area. The results showed that the model performed better than the established wash-off model and the commonly-used event mean concentrations method, and identified two different modes of pollution characteristics dominated by land pollution and rainfall pollution, respectively. In addition, the model simulated more accurate pollutant concentrations at high-temporal-resolution. From this, it was found that 12% of the total runoff contained 80% to 95% of the total load for chemical oxygen demand, total N, and total P, whereas it contained only 15% of the total load for NH₄⁺-N. The enhanced model can provide deeper insights into non-point pollution mitigation.

关键词： Erhai Lake field experiment non-point source pollution load rainfall runoff wash-off model

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Effects of alfalfa coverage on runoff, erosion and hydraulic characteristics of overland flow on loess

Shufang WU, Pute WU, Hao FENG, G. P. Merkley

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第1期页码 76-83 doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0282-x

摘要： An evaluation of the interactions between vegetation, overland and soil erosion can provide valuable insight for the conservation of soil and water. An experiment was conducted to study water infiltration, runoff generation process, rate of sediment erosion, and hydrodynamic characteristics of overland flow from a sloping hillside with different draw-off discharges from alfalfa and control plots with 20° slope. The effect of alfalfa on runoff and sediment transport reduction was quantitatively analyzed. Alfalfa was discussed for its ability to reduce the overland flow scouring force or change the runoff movement. Compared to the bare-soil plots, alfalfa plots generated a 1.77 times increase in infiltration rate. Furthermore, the down-slope water infiltration rate for the bare soil plots was higher than in the up-slope, while the opposite was found in the alfalfa plots. In addition, alfalfa had a significant effect on runoff and sediment yield. In comparison to the control, the runoff coefficient and sediment transportation rate decreased by 28.3% and 78.4% in the grass slope, respectively. The runoff generated from the alfalfa and bare-soil plots had similar trends with an initial increase and subsequent leveling to a steady-state rate. The transport of sediment reduced with time as a consequence of the depletion of loose surface materials. The maximum sediment concentration was recorded within the first few minutes of each event. The alfalfa plots had subcritical flow while the bare-soil plots had supercritical flow, which indicate that the capability of the alfalfa slope for resisting soil erosion and sediment movement was greater than for bare soil plots. Moreover, the flow resistance coefficient and roughness coefficient for the alfalfa plots were both higher than for the bare-soil plots, which indicate that overland flow in alfalfa plots had retarded and was blocked, and the flow energy along the runoff path had gradually dissipated. Finally, the ability to erode and transport sediment had decreased.

关键词： alfalfa soil erosion runoff and sedimentation soil water infiltration overland flow hydrodynamic characteristics

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美国NRC颠覆性技术持续预测系统浅析

张晓林

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第6期页码 117-121 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

摘要：

美国国家研究委员会（NRC）发布的《颠覆性技术持续性预测》（Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

关键词：颠覆性技术持续预测理想系统

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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第1期页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要： This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词： day-ahead electricity markets price forecasting load forecasting artificial neural networks load serving entities

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一种用于淮河上游日径流预测的增强型LSTM模型 Article

满媛媛, 杨勤丽, 邵俊明, 王国庆, 白林龙, 薛运宏

《工程（英文）》 2023年第24卷第5期页码 230-239 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.022

摘要：

径流预测对防洪具有重要意义。然而，由于径流过程的复杂性和随机性，很难准确预测日径流量，尤其是洪峰径流量。为此，本研究提出了一种用于日径流预测的增强型长短期记忆（LSTM）模型，其中集成了特征提取器并引入了新的损失函数。具体而言，为每个气象站建立由三个LSTM网络组成的特征提取器，旨在提取每个气象站输入数据的时间特征。此外，两个损失函数[ peak error tanh（PET）、peak error swish（PES）]用来增强峰值径流预测的权重，同时减少正常径流预测的权重。本研究以中国淮河流域上游为研究对象，利用增强型LSTM模型进行1960—2016 年的日径流预测。结果表明，增强型LSTM模型表现良好，纳什效率系数（NSE）在验证期（2005 年11 月至2016 年12 月）达到了0.917~0.924，优于广泛使用的集总式水文模型（AWBM、Sacramento、SimHyd、Tank Model）和数据驱动模型[人工神经网络（ANN）、支持向量回归（SVR）、门控循环单元（GRU）]。以PES 作为损失函数的增强型LSTM在极端径流预测方面表现最佳，在洪水期间的平均NSE为0.873。此外，海拔较高的气象站的降水比距离出水口最近的气象站对径流预测的影响更大。该研究可为流域日径流预测提供有效工具，为流域防洪和水安全管理提供技术支持。

关键词：径流预测长短期记忆网络淮河上游流域极端径流损失函数